Low Cell, Blu-ray laser yields could spell trouble for Sony in the short-term
7/12/2006 1:40:50 PM, by Ken Fisher
The Sony PlayStation 3 is a showcase for brand-spankin' new technology, and two of the stars of that show will be Blu-ray and the Cell processor. As we draw nearer to the planned worldwide November launch of the new console, there are signs, rumors, and premonitions that the PlayStation 3 may be in short supply for the first several months of its life.
The much vaunted Cell processor, for instance, appears to be a low-yield wonder. Tom Reeves, VP of semiconductor and technology services at IBM, openly admitted that only one of every five Cell CPUs rolling out of their fabs is fully functional with regards to all eight Synergistic Processing Elements.
In an interview with Electronics News, Reeves said "With a chip like the Cell processor, you’re lucky to get 10 or 20 percent [yield]. If you put logic redundancy on it, you can double that." His comments suggest that Sony's effective yield should be closer to 20 to 40 percent, since the PlayStation 3 only requires 7 functional SPEs (6 for the heavy lifting, one for the system). The low yields did prompt an interesting question as to whether or not Sony would consider re-engineering to use Cells with fewer functional cores, to which Reeves said, "It could [be done], but I don’t think Sony has thought about offering that."
On the Blu-ray front, China's Commercial Times newspaper is reporting that Sony has not been able to meet demand for producing the special diode required for Blu-ray's blue laser. Reportedly the problems affects both Sony and Nichia Corp., who together will supply the majority of diodes to all Blu-ray device manufacturers. The report, which was summarized in English by
IMDB, suggests that the manufacturing problems could cause problems for the PS3 as well as Blu-ray players in general.
That said, yields on new technologies are typically low, and both the Cell and the Blu-ray laser are comprised of cutting edge technologies that few expected would see instant yields north of 80 percent come launch time.
The Cell is a large processor (235mm2) and expensive to manufacture, and Sony has known this since day one. As time goes by and IBM gets better at making the Cell, prices will drop and yields will improve. In the meantime, however, all signs point to "Sold Out!" being the PS3's holiday slogan, as the mad rush for the latest and greatest from Sony will likely hit a supply drought if production does not improve soon.
